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India is likely to experience below-normal monsoon rainfall this year, with a 20 per cent chance of drought due to the end of La Nina conditions and the potential for El Nino to take hold, private forecasting agency Skymet Weather said on Monday.
On May 15, the weather office had announced the onset of monsoon over Kerala by May 31.
June rainfall accounts for 15 percent of the total precipitation of 87 cm recorded during the four-month monsoon season in the country.
East and northeast India recorded 29 per cent rain deficit -- 141.5 mm against the normal of 199.9 mm -- from March 1 to May 3.
Scientists had earlier said the cyclone pulled the moisture and convection, impacting the intensity of the monsoon and delaying its onset over Kerala.
Ten to 20 days of heatwave are expected against the normal of four to eight days in the entire April-June period.
The southwest monsoon has arrived in Mumbai 16 days before its usual date, making it the earliest arrival since 1950. This early onset follows the monsoon's arrival in Kerala, the southernmost state, on Saturday, marking the earliest arrival since 2009. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts an above-normal rainfall for the 2025 monsoon season, with rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the 50-year average of 87 cm considered 'normal'. The monsoon is crucial for India's economy, providing vital water for agriculture and replenishing reservoirs.
Dozens of farmers have already committed suicide in India after damage from unseasonal rains this year.
East India, along with a major portion of central India, is likely to be at a higher risk of being rain deficient, especially during the first half of the season.
Heatwave conditions have been prevailing in Odisha since April 15 and the Gangetic West Bengal since April 17, according to the MeT department.
India has received 20 per cent less rainfall since the start of the monsoon period on June 1, with the rain-bearing system making no significant progress between June 12 and 18, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Addressing a press conference virtually, India Meteorological Department Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said September was likely to witness normal rainfall in the range of 91-109 per cent of the long period average of 167.9 mm.
El Nino refers to abnormal warming of surface ocean waters in the Pacific that disrupts weather pattern causing drought and floods in many regions of the world.
The El Nino risks for this year is rising in India and it could result in sub-par rains, says a report.
Lakhs of voters will have to bear the searing heat when they step out to exercise their franchise in the second phase of the Lok Sabha elections on Friday.
The IMD DG said there should not be an impression that climate change leads to rise in the temperature, but on the contrary, it leads to erratic weather.
Sri Lanka and southern India could continue to experience higher than normal rainfall and this could cause further flooding, particularly urban flooding, in certain locations, the report said.
Heatwave may abate over most parts of North India in next two days; temperatures likely to drop by 2-3C.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) seems to have taken a cautious stand over the World Meteorological Organisation's (WMO) projection of a 'poor monsoon' due to a probable 'El Nino' impact. The IMD did not agree with WMO's projections, saying, "El Nino and the progress of monsoon are not mutually exclusive events", and remained non-committal over its earlier projection of a "normal monsoon" for the June-September 2009 season.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has officially confirmed that 2023 is the hottest year on record by a huge margin, smashing global temperature records.
Though early days, meteorologists point towards a neutral La Nina during the initial phase of the four-month monsoon season this year that starts from June. If this holds true, by the time the rains hit the mainland, it could mean there would be one less reason to worry about the prospects of the monsoon this year. Weathermen said making any accurate prediction of how El Nino will behave and what impact it can have on the progress and distribution of rains is difficult to say at this point. A clear picture will emerge around late May or early June.
El Nino is expected to occur in August-September, but it is unlikely to have any major impact on the monsoon, and the weatherman expects a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which has a strong influence on rainfall in the country.
There is a substantial possibility of the emergence of La Nina, the opposite of El Nino, which invariably has a positive influence on the monsoon.
India is set to experience extreme heat during the April to June period, with the central and western peninsular parts expected to face the worst impact, the IMD said on Monday as the country prepares for seven-phase general elections from April 19.
After a stellar run on the bourses that saw tractor stocks rise up to 52 per cent, analysts are turning cautious on the sector as muted demand trends may weigh in the near-term. Total volumes in the tractor segment for the last three quarters of the current financial year (9MFY24) have remained weak with VST Tillers, Escorts Kubota, and M&M seeing declines of 21 per cent, 5 per cent, and 3 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), respectively, during the period, amid patchy rainfall, delayed crop harvest, and lower reservoir level. Across industry, total domestic sales volume so far in the current financial year (April '23 to January '24) has declined 5 per cent Y-o-Y, as per Tractor Manufacturers Association (TMA).
The planet experienced its warmest January on record last month despite the development of La Nia, a climate pattern that usually brings cooler global temperatures, the European climate agency said on Thursday. This comes on the heels of the Earth experiencing its hottest year on record in 2024, also the first to see global average temperatures rise 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), January 2025 recorded an average temperature of 13.23 degrees Celsius, 0.09 degrees warmer than the previous hottest January (2024) and 0.79 degrees above the 1991-2020 average. Scientists also found that the Earth's temperature in January was 1.75 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels. Global temperatures have stayed above the 1.5-degree mark for 18 of the last 19 months.
'The first two months of monsoon are not looking good.' 'In case both the halves fail, it is going to be misery.'
For the second successive year, Monsoon is likely to be below normal with parts of north-west and central India to be the most affected.
With the monsoon set to start in the country this week, the Meteorological Department has placed the odds of El Nino -- which can affect wind patterns and trigger both floods and sharply reduced rains -- at 60 per cent.
Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar said the borewell in his house in Sadashivanagar in the state capital has gone dry for the first time. This happened despite the fact that Sadashivanagar is located next to Sankey Lake.
The seasonal temperature would be above normal by more than one degree Celsius over Northwest India.
Pre-monsoon rainfall, colloquial referred to as "mango showers", is vital to many parts of the country.
The exercise, Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh said, will help ease any possible impact of sub-par rainfall on farmers.
The IMD chief also allayed fears of occurrence of an El-Nino.
Deficient rains can shave 50-80 basis points off gross domestic product and hurt consumption.
The five warmest years in Indian weather history have occurred in the past 14 years -- the others being 2009, 2017 and 2010, in order of intensity.
The UK body's forecast comes after the UN agency World Meteorological Organisation warned that there is more than 50 per cent chance of El Nino happening this year. El Nino is caused by an abnormal warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean and its impact would cause droughts and floods.
After El Nino and droughts hit pepper in Vietnam, causing a production drop of around 20%, Indian market is hoping that the global supply position will remain tight this year.
According to the global financial services major, inflation may remain sticky, with a possible El Nino effect on the monsoon likely to push up food prices and geopolitical uncertainties seen pumping up global commodity rates.
