Several global models are predicting El Nio to appear around the second half of the year, which are the crucial rain-bearing months.
Though the summer is expected to be hotter, global and domestic forecasts point to good rains.
The BMC is closely monitoring reservoir levels and enforcing water conservation measures as concerns over supply grow.
Total area impacted across India pegged at 18.9 mn hectares.
The report notes that equities had faced pressure from elevated valuation premiums, subdued nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and earnings growth, sustained foreign portfolio investor (FPI) selling, artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure euphoria, and external shocks including US tariffs and a spike in crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in West Asia. However, several of these factors are now reversing.
With the southwest monsoon stalled over southern Maharashtra, India is facing a nationwide rainfall deficit of 41 percent between June 4 and June 18, according to the latest India meteorological department (IMD) data.
India's retail inflation rose to 4.38 per cent in June, driven primarily by costlier food items, pushing it above the Reserve Bank of India's median target of 4 per cent for the first time under the new series.
Climate scientists warn that climate change is intensifying heatwaves in India, with the cooling effects of La Nia potentially becoming less effective in a warmer future. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts an early summer with above-normal temperatures and intense heatwave spells, following an unusually dry winter and the warmest February since 1901. Experts emphasize the role of human-caused climate change, along with natural climate drivers like El Nio and La Nia, in shaping weather patterns. While La Nia typically brings cooler temperatures, scientists suggest that under climate change, its ability to mitigate heatwaves may be diminished.
India is likely to witness a mixed temperature pattern along with wetter-than-usual conditions in May, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicating that rainfall across the country is "most likely to be above normal" at over 110 per cent of the long period average (LPA).
'The MPC is likely to prioritise the key mandate, which is inflation, while relying on other instruments to stabilise the currency and bond markets.'
Monetary Policy- Easing expected to happen later this financial year.
'It is not because of the war in West Asia, which began on February 28.' 'Petroleum product prices are already going through the roof. They are bound to have a serious inflationary impact.' 'A country's leadership is tested in trying times. It is here that the current leadership is failing.'
The Indian rupee is highly vulnerable among Asian currencies, with Barclays and MUFG warning of a potential depreciation towards 100/$ if the West Asia conflict persists, driven by widening current account deficits and elevated crude oil prices.
India's wholesale price inflation surged to 8.30 per cent in April, up from 3.88 per cent in March, primarily driven by a significant increase in the prices of fuel, power, and crude petroleum, according to data from the commerce and industry ministry.
India is likely to see above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September) with cumulative rainfall rainfall estimated at 106 percent of the long-period average (87 cm), he said.
ITC reported a 6.1 per cent year-on-year growth in its consolidated adjusted net profit from continuing operations, reaching ~5,469.74 crore in the January-March quarter (Q4FY26), primarily fuelled by strong performances in its cigarettes and non-cigarette fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) businesses.
This may also be the second-strongest El Nino after 1998. El Nino winds bring drastic changes in the weather pattern, which will hit the agriculture sector.
Spurred by cyclone Remal, the southwest monsoon set in over the Kerala coast and parts of the northeast on Thursday, a day earlier than forecast by the weather office.
Also, the monsoon this year may end up being the driest since 2015, which recorded a rainfall deficit of 13 per cent, they said.
'Can you believe there are over 26,500 deaths linked to heatwave-driven ozone in 2024?'
Even if there is an early agreement on a cessation of hostilities in West Asia, the price shock will not go away easily, points out A K Bhattacharya.
This is the time for India to plan forward fully, with the goal of Atmanirbharata, and energy security. The Persian Gulf is no longer a reliable source, points out Rajeev Srinivasan.
Conditions were becoming favourable for further advance of the southwest monsoon over some more parts of the south peninsula and east India and adjoining areas between June 18 and 21.
The southwest monsoon season concluded on Saturday with India receiving 'below-average' cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in an El Nino year.
Revenue collection next financial year may be affected, and, along with this, subsidies on food and fertilisers can go up if the war in West Asia drags for long, according to experts.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra is now confronting the classic growth-inflation tradeoff, a situation exacerbated by the West Asia war, which threatens to end the 'goldilocks period' of low inflation and robust growth.
The country can expect normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a lower snow cover over the northern hemisphere are likely to counter the evolving El Nino conditions, the India meteorological department (IMD) said on Tuesday.
'Monsoon is the pran (life) of our water system.' 'A weak monsoon will have a very negative impact on crops and people's lives.'
India is likely to experience below-normal monsoon rainfall this year, with a 20 per cent chance of drought due to the end of La Nina conditions and the potential for El Nino to take hold, private forecasting agency Skymet Weather said on Monday.
India is likely to see above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures in most parts of the country in the March to May period, IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said at a press conference.
On May 15, the weather office had announced the onset of monsoon over Kerala by May 31.
East and northeast India recorded 29 per cent rain deficit -- 141.5 mm against the normal of 199.9 mm -- from March 1 to May 3.
Skymet expects a good monsoon over western and southern India.
June rainfall accounts for 15 percent of the total precipitation of 87 cm recorded during the four-month monsoon season in the country.
Scientists had earlier said the cyclone pulled the moisture and convection, impacting the intensity of the monsoon and delaying its onset over Kerala.
India's peak power demand is projected to hit 270 GW this summer, surpassing last year's record of 250 GW.
Dozens of farmers have already committed suicide in India after damage from unseasonal rains this year.
East India, along with a major portion of central India, is likely to be at a higher risk of being rain deficient, especially during the first half of the season.
Ten to 20 days of heatwave are expected against the normal of four to eight days in the entire April-June period.
El Nino refers to abnormal warming of surface ocean waters in the Pacific that disrupts weather pattern causing drought and floods in many regions of the world.
